Inflation is already putting pressure on the common man’s pocket and now there is a possibility of a sharp rise in it in October. This may affect the prices of food items, fuel and everyday items. Rating agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has estimated that in October 2026, the country’s wholesale inflation may cross 12 percent and retail inflation may cross 6 percent. Adverse base effect, change in weather and rise in energy prices have been cited as the main reasons behind this.
According to Ind-Ra, inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) may remain under pressure in the coming months. Due to adverse base effect, wholesale inflation may remain high till February 2027 and is expected to remain in double digits. In September, wholesale inflation had increased to 11.39 percent, which is the highest level in its current series. In August it was 9.92 percent. That means a sharp increase in wholesale inflation was recorded in just one month.
Retail inflation may also cross 6%
The hope of relief for common consumers also seems weak at the moment. Retail inflation had increased to 5.54 percent in September 2026, which is the highest level in 23 months. In August it was 4.83 percent. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist of Ind-Ra, retail inflation may cross the level of 6 percent in October. If this happens, the pressure on families making household budgets may increase further.
Energy prices and weak rupee are increasing pressure
The prices of crude oil and petroleum products have a rapid impact on wholesale inflation. At the same time, retail inflation is affected by changes in the prices of petrol and diesel along with the government’s tax and duty related decisions. The weak rupee is also playing a role in increasing inflation, as it can make imports costlier. Pant said that now the pressure of inflation, both wholesale and retail, is becoming widespread. However, if the crisis in West Asia is resolved, inflation may be lower than expected.
RBI may increase interest rates
To control inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can increase the policy interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points during the current tightening period. Last week, RBI had increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent. This was the first rate hike since February 2023. If interest rates increase, loans can become expensive, due to which the EMI of home loan and other loans is also likely to be affected.
Input- PTI
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