middleDue to the fear of rising inflation amid the ongoing tension in the East, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may keep the repo rate stable at 5.25 percent in its monetary policy review meeting in April. Economists have made this estimate. According to the survey conducted among more than 12 economists, ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in commodity prices and sharp currency depreciation have complicated the policy outlook. In such a situation, RBI’s estimates and policy stance on growth rate, inflation will be closely monitored.
India is not untouched by the current crisis
“Given the uncertainty around crude oil prices and geopolitical developments, the RBI is likely to maintain status quo in the April policy and consider inflation data before taking any further steps,” said Aditi Nair, Chief Economist at ICRA. SBI Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said the RBI will be very cautious in its comments while announcing keeping the repo rate on hold. He said, “India is not untouched by the current crisis. Rupee is already above 93 per dollar and crude oil is above 100 dollars per barrel, due to which inflation has increased.
Monetary Policy Committee meeting will start on Monday
Crisil chief economist Deepti Deshpande said if inflation remains close to the MPC’s target, this shock in monetary policy can be ignored and interest rates can be kept stable. The central bank has reduced the repo rate by 1.25 percent since February last year. However, the bank did not make any change in the repo rate in the meetings of August, October and February 2026. The April review meeting of the 6-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin on Monday and its outcome will be announced on Wednesday. This will be the first MPC meeting of the financial year 2026-27 starting from April 1.
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