New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department has predicted less than normal monsoon rainfall in the country this year. The Meteorological Department says that the total rainfall between June and September is likely to be 92% (±5%) of the long period average. This estimate is based on the average (87 cm) from 1971 to 2020.
According to IMD, the situation will be neutral from April to June, but there is a strong possibility of El Nino becoming active and strong during the monsoon. El Nino conditions usually weaken the Indian monsoon and increase heat.
Where will it rain more and where will it rain less?
- Drought-like conditions may occur in the plains of North India (Gangetic region), hilly areas, large parts of Central India and some areas of Western India.
- Rainfall may be better than normal over Northeast India, parts of North-West and selected areas of South Peninsular India.
- Currently the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and snow cover over Eurasia has been low, which are positive signs for the development of the monsoon.
double blow to the economy
- Less rainfall may affect sowing and production of Kharif crops (paddy, pulses, vegetables). If production decreases, the prices of pulses and vegetables may increase in the market, which may spoil the budget of the common man.
- India’s rural economy is largely dependent on agriculture. Farmers’ income will reduce due to crop failure or low yield. This will have a direct impact on the sales of tractors, two-wheelers and FMCG products, as demand from villages will reduce.
- Due to less rainfall, the water level of reservoirs may fall, which will increase pressure not only on irrigation but also on animal husbandry and availability of drinking water.
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