According to the latest report by State Bank of India (SBI), India’s economy is likely to grow at a growth rate of around 7.5 per cent in 2025-26, slightly higher than the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimate of 7.4 per cent. In the first advance estimate released on Wednesday, NSO has projected GDP growth for 2025-26 at 7.4 percent and higher than 6.5 percent in the last financial year. At the same time, the estimate of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is 7.3 percent.
Real GDP growth estimated at around 7.5 percent
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated at 7.3 percent and nominal GDP expansion at 8 percent. According to SBI, historically there has been a difference of only 20-30 basis points between the RBI and NSO estimates, so an estimate of 7.4 per cent is expected. The report further said that real GDP growth for FY26 is likely to be around 7.5 per cent, with an upward bias. The Second Advance Estimates, which will incorporate more data and revisions, will be released on 27 February 2026. There may be changes in these figures after the base revision of 2022-23.
Tax revenue likely to be lower than expected
Regarding fiscal deficit, the report said it stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore by the end of November 2025, or 62.3 percent of the budget estimate. SBI said tax revenue is likely to be lower than expected, but higher non-tax revenue will not have much impact on total receipts. Total expenditure is also likely to be relatively low, due to which the fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 15.85 lakh crore, whereas it was Rs 15.69 lakh crore in the budget.
As per the new GDP data, fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP is likely to remain stable at 4.4 per cent. Despite the pressure of US tariffs remaining in force, there have been strong signals about the Indian economy. It is expected that encouraging figures will be obtained in the coming time also.
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