The Economic Survey 2025-2026 said on Thursday that gold and silver prices may continue to rise further due to increasing demand as safe-haven amid global uncertainties. However, despite this, inflation is not likely to be a cause of major concern in the next financial year. According to the survey, the inflation scenario remains favorable at present. This is being supported by strong supply side conditions and the gradual impact of rationalization of GST rates. Inflation is expected to remain within the target range going forward, supported by strong agricultural production, stability in global commodity prices and a cautious policy stance.
Risks related to global uncertainties remain
The report also said that, however, risks related to currency exchange rate fluctuations, rise in base metals prices and global uncertainties remain, which will require continued monitoring and policy response as necessary. The Economic Survey report said that unless lasting peace is established globally and trade wars are resolved, the prices of precious metals like gold and silver may continue to rise due to demand for safe haven investments.
Core inflation will not be at worrying levels
According to the survey, headline and core inflation (except precious metals) in India in the financial year 2026-27 may be higher than in the financial year 2025-26, but despite this it will not be at a worrying level. The survey noted that both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have projected a gradual increase in headline inflation in the next financial year, keeping the inflation rate within the target range of 4 percent (+/- 2 percent).
The International Monetary Fund has estimated inflation at 2.8 percent in FY26 and 4 percent in FY27. At the same time, according to RBI, headline inflation in the first and second quarter of FY27 is estimated to be 3.9 percent and 4 percent respectively.
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